Nuclear chain reaction depends on the continuous splitting of uranium atoms’ nuclei, which releases neutrons whose energy generates heat, that is used to produce steam powering the turbines to power the electricity grid.

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A visit to Bruce Power can help one understand the intricacies of a nuclear facility and the challenges involved in safeguarding it against accidents. The failure of a nuclear plant can have disastrous consequences, as demonstrated by the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Due to security concerns, the Japanese Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, previously the largest one in the world, was shut down and remains inactive. However, additional risks associated with managing spent fuel, which will remain radioactive for the foreseeable future, are often underappreciated.

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The Bruce reactors are scheduled for refurbishment to extend their lives into the 2060s. The work, which started in 2016, will continue into the 2030s at a cost of over $13 billion 4.

In that process, Unit 7 was developed as an Isotope Production System to produce Lutetium-177, which is used for cancer treatment. The facility was completed in January 2022.

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The SMRs 

The growing demand for electricity has prompted Ontario Power Generation (OPG) to invest extensively in the Darlington Plant near Toronto, where they plan to build Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). These reactors have a unique design that is expected to reduce the time and cost of construction. However, by launching the SMR project, OPG is entering uncharted territory, as Canada is pioneering this untested technology 5.

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The OPG announcement of January 2023 states that it has opted for the BWRX-300 SMR design, developed by GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH), an American Japanese company. With its new SMR design, GEH aims to reduce plant size by 90% compared to traditional large-scale boiling water reactors, thus significantly reducing construction costs. The BWRX-300, which is approximately the size of a football field, is expected to produce enough electricity to power about 300,000 homes.

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To achieve this goal, a consortium has been formed between GE Hitachi and the Canadian companies SNC-Lavalin, Aecon, and E.S. Fox. The steel components for Darlington’s New Nuclear Project will be built offsite by Aecon in Cambridge and by E.S. Fox at its Port Robinson facility near Niagara Falls. Subsequently, these components will be welded together and shipped to the construction site in Darlington. CANDU Energy will be responsible for the design and supply of the reactors. This arrangement is expected to contribute to reduced construction costs for North America’s first SMR, which is scheduled to be completed by late 2028.

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Despite dozens of SMR projects being developed in various countries, at present only the Chinese are continuing with their Linglong One project on Hainan Island. In the US, only the Idaho National Laboratory (NuScale) was committed to building an SMR. However, its commissioning date was postponed several times and eventually pushed back to 2029. In the meantime, construction costs increased considerably. In January 2023, NuScale announced that its planned price of electricity from the Idaho plant project had increased from $58 per megawatt-hour to $89 - more than most other sources of electricity charge, including solar and wind power. By comparison, the price paid for electricity from Bruce Power as of April 1, 2022, is estimated to be $91.23/MWh 6. The final coup came in November 2023 when the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) and NuScale Power Corporation (NuScale) agreed to terminate the project 7.

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In the meantime, the Ontario government and OPG at Darlington remain undeterred and are promising to double the number of planned SMRs 8.

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Developing new nuclear technologies remains risky. The iconic American Westinghouse, established in 1886 in Pittsburgh, that was involved in building nuclear reactors for some 50 years, got in trouble constructing four nuclear power plants with a new design (the AP1000). The  innovative modular concept proved to be unexpectedly expensive, so that Westinghouse ran into billions of cost overruns and in 2017 filed for bankruptcy 9.  In November 2023 it was bought out by Canadian companies Brookfield, a Canadian investment management company, and by Cameco, a Saskatchewan uranium company 10.

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The US experience remains a cautionary tale in the history of the development of innovative nuclear technologies.  

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Nuclear microreactors

Despite NuScale mishaps, the race to come up with cheaper and more reliable nuclear technologies continues. The idea of building small modular reactors (SMRs) got carried into a whole new realm of microreactors, so small that they could be hauled in a shipping container and installed in a matter of weeks. In November 2023 the Saskatchewan Premier, Scott Moe, announced $80 million in funding for the Saskatchewan Research Council to explore the possibility of bringing a microreactor, named eVinci and designed by the now Canadian owned Westinghouse, to the province by the end of the decade 11.  

If the project proves practical, self-contained microreactors could be installed in remote areas in the Canadian Arctic, to serve isolated communities as well as the uranium mines that so far have been relying on diesel power generators. 

 

Phasing out fossil fuels

Generating electricity comes at a significant environmental cost: burning fossil fuels pollutes the atmosphere. In 2002, Toronto had 60 smog alert days when people were advised to stay indoors. After closing the Nanticoke Generating Station near Port Dover (the largest coal-fired plant in North America) and the Lakeview plant in Mississauga in 2014, the number of smog days virtually disappeared 12.

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Phasing out Ontario’s five coal-fired plants, which accounted for one-quarter of the province’s electricity supply, was made possible by replacing the energy deficit with nuclear power. While nuclear plants do not release toxic emissions into the atmosphere, the accumulation of nuclear waste creates problems with long-term storage. Consequently, Germany has decided to forgo nuclear technologies in favor of renewables. The country plans to supplement its wind farms and hydropower with new-generation plants fueled by natural gas and hydrogen, such as the newly opened Biblis Grid Stability Power Plant south of Frankfurt, which is designed for emergency backups.

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In Canada, Quebec too intended to satisfy future demand without nuclear energy. Its policies towards nuclear energy have followed a sinuous path. Gentilly-1, a prototype CANDU boiling water reactor, was not successful and is no longer in operation. Gentilly-2, was started in 1982, had a good service record and initially was scheduled for an overhaul at the cost of $1.9 billion, to extend its lifespan to 2040. However, the Quebec government of Pauline Marois decided to shut it down in 2012. It was scheduled for decommissioning that was deemed to cost $1.8 billion over a period of more than 50 years.  It was supposed to be replaced by Gentilly-3 but due to falling demand in the 1970s that project was cancelled by Quebec Premier René Lévesque, who thought that future demand could be fulfilled with hydroelectricity.

Quebec is profiting from abundant hydro energy and a lucrative long-term contract with the 1969 Churchill Falls facility in Labrador. The deal allows Hydro-Québec, the province's provincially owned utility, to purchase 85 per cent of the electricity generated at the station at a rock bottom price of $2 per megawatt-hour, which to this day remains a lasting bone of contention with the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. 

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Currently, Hydro-Québec generates more than 99% of its electricity from renewable sources, with 94% coming from hydroelectric resources. However, Quebec’s government faces the pressure of a fast-growing demand for electricity and started to consider reactivating Gentilly-2 in August 2023 13.

 

Quebec has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050, which means achieving a balance between emitting and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. In addition, the province plans to cut its emissions by 35 to 45 percent below the 1990 levels by 2030. To reach these targets, the province intends to increase its generating capacity by 5000 MW, by upgrading its existing hydropower plants and adding more wind power capacity.

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Nuclear waste management 

While current nuclear reactors, based on fission of uranium, are relatively safe under normal conditions, they are not risk free. And in war torn countries they face serious risks of sabotage, terrorism, or even government collapse.

To prevent a nuclear accident, the CANDU reactors of Bruce Power are equipped with several backup security systems. The reactor itself can be shut off in mere seconds, by dropping control rods into the core, which absorb neutrons from the fission and interrupt the chain reaction. The pipes with the uranium material in the reactor core are cooled by pressurized heavy water. A backup system is in place in case of an interruption of the electricity supply to the pumps. Also, a large building with negative air pressure is on standby in case radioactive material escapes from the reactor. Recently, specialized fire trucks have been acquired, which, in case of a major fire at the facility, are able to dump 3000 gallons of water a minute. An emergency response team of 400 technicians, is on standby in case of a major accident. Luckily, there has not been any in the history of the facility. 

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Another set of problems is posed by the unresolved issue of what to do with nuclear waste. Bruce Power produces two tons of nuclear waste a day. For now, all the spent nuclear fuel is stored onsite for several years in a large pool of water, until the radiation is significantly reduced, when it is moved to a dry storage facility nearby.  This material will remain radioactive indefinitely. Canada does not have an option to bury it underground, such as Finland with the ONKALO underground repository 14. At the cost of over $1 billion it has been digging tunnels deep in solid rock to secure the storage from seismic incidents.

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In 2019 Ontario Power Generation initiated studies and environmental consultations about a plan to bury nuclear waste in an underground repository 15. However, as of January 2024 a decision about the location of a site has not been reached.

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Worldwide, the scale of the problem is exemplified by the fact that over 260,000 tonnes of spent nuclear fuel are kept in interim storage, the majority of which are at reactor sites. Some of it is being daily transported by trucks on public roads. According to the World Nuclear Association,  globally about 15 million packages of radioactive material are transported each year on public roads, railways, and ships.

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The risks grow considerably where supervision of a nuclear facility is impeded, as in Ukraine. Concerns are voiced regarding the Zaporizhia Plant, the largest in Europe, which is endangered by intensive warfare in the area. It is currently controlled by the Russian occupying forces, which are suspected of secretly planning a sabotage scenario in case Ukrainian counteroffensive endangered their hold on the territory. A dangerous precedent took place on June 6, 2003, when the nearby Kakhovka Dam, also under Russian control, was destroyed in an explosion 16. The water from the huge reservoir on the Dnieper River flooded dozens of kilometers of land downstream, killing 58 residents and leaving many others missing. The suspicion is that Russian forces may have caused the flooding to prevent Ukrainian forces from landing across the river.

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A similar event took place in WWII, when the Soviets blew up another dam in the area to slow down the German offensive.  In August 1941, the Soviet NKVD blew up the Dnieper dam, killing between 3,000 and 100,000 civilians and Soviet troops 17. Recently, the UN's nuclear inspector warned of a very real risk of a nuclear disaster if the Zaporizhia plant were bombarded, accidentally or intentionally. Even though the reactors have been shut down they still need to be cooled to contain radioactive material that could disperse over a large area.

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Another example of risks involved with dealing with nuclear reactors was the fate of the Russian nuclear submarine
K-159 18. The nuclear-powered submarine served in the Soviet Navy from 1963 to 1989. It was decommissioned in 1989, and in 2003, while being towed for dismantlement, it sank in the Barents Sea with 800 kilograms of highly radioactive nuclear fuel in its reactors. Despite pronouncements from the Russian government, it remains on the seabed with a risk that the corroded shell of the reactors will release the radioactive waste and contaminate the surrounding area. The nine other nuclear submarines, that are also known to have sunk, are two U.S. Navy vessels, five in service to the Soviet navy, and two Russian boats 19. Those incidents add to the global concerns about the safety of nuclear energy.

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2023 a record year for renewables

Renewables are not saddled with the security concerns of nuclear energy and for this reason they retain strong advocates. Until recently, the main problem was their cost and intermittency, however, the last decade has witnessed extraordinary progress in developing these technologies.

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In 2021 Texas, a state traditionally dominated by big oil, installed 7,352 megawatts of new wind, solar, and energy installation projects, well ahead of California, known for championing green energy (still, in California, renewable sources produce more than a third of electricity). Texas was wary of another catastrophic power outage like the one earlier that year when an unusual cold spell froze the power plants leaving more than 4.5 million homes without electricity. The lack of heat and water for days resulted in 57 deaths and over $195 billion in property damage 20.

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In Canada, the oil-rich province of Alberta has also invested extensively in renewables, which has made it the solar and wind capital of the country 21.

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In Europe, apart from Germany, Norway is advanced in building wind farms, mostly offshore where they are most effective. In August 2023, the world’s biggest floating wind farm was commissioned 22. Hywind Tampern, with 88 MW of capacity, will generate energy to supply nearby oil and gas platforms. Its 11 giant wind turbines (with a 167-meter-diameter rotor and 81.5-meter-long blades) are expected to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by about 200,000 tons per year.

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In December 2023, despite some initial setbacks in developing new windfarms due to rising costs, New York City was able to hook up the first windturbine in the offshore windfarm, South Fork Wind, being built at a cost of  $2 billion 23. The giant German Siemens made turbines, some 50 stories tall, are being erected by a Dutch company whose specialized equipment allows to assemble one turbine in a matter of days. Once completed, the 12 turbines are expected to power 70,000 homes.

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Altogether, the year 2023 saw a record quantity of renewable energy added, mainly due to significant investments in Europe and China 24. In the past year alone more than 440 gigawatts of renewable energy were added. The efficiency of wind turbines has increased greatly, and the cost of solar panels has dropped dramatically (by 30–40% in 2023, due to massive expansion of manufacturing capacity in China) to the point that now solar is the cheapest form of electricity in a majority of countries 25.

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By the end of 2023, the world added enough wind energy to power nearly 80 million homes, making it a record year. Most of the growth, or more than 58 gigawatts, was added in China.

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At the same time, improved storage helps to remedy problems with irregular supply of electricity from those sources. Increased storage capacity allows grid administrators to supplement the supply of electricity at times when sufficient wind or sunshine is not available. Again, last year saw massive investments in batteries.  The U.S.  spent more than $43.4 billion on battery manufacturing and battery recycling, mainly thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act. The U.S. and Europe each had 38 gigafactories in the works, while China had a whopping 235.

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Another 58GW of renewable power was added in Europe by solar farms- a 40 per cent growth from 2022. However, here too, China's additions of 170 GW dwarfed those of all other countries, with global installations hitting 400 GW 26.

In Europe, Spain was most advanced in utilizing  renewable energy in that over half of the demand was met by electricity generated by windfarms and solar panels. Its government is pressing ahead with ambitious plans to double its wind power from 30GW at present to 62GW in 2030 27.

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Germany has been a known proponent of developing windfarms. The installed capacity of wind power in Germany was 55.6 gigawatts at the end of 2017 and has been growing rapidly. In 2023 Germany added 2.9 GW of onshore wind power, to reach the total capacity of  60.9 GW. Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions in 2023 reached 14.1 GW, double that added in 2022. At the end of 2023, Germany had 81.7 GW installed of PV capacity 28.

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Within German renewables, offshore wind contributed a 31.1% share, solar 12.1% and biomass 8.4%, while the remaining 3.4% came from hydropower and other renewables. This feat was attained with the help of milder winter and reduced need of energy due to continued economic slump caused by the war in Ukraine and the cessation of gas supplies from Russia. Last year, the benchmark day-ahead power price fell by 60% to 95.18 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), returning to 2021 levels. In  total, in 2023, Germany was projected to generate over 115 TWh from those sources, competing with the much larger US, which has 379 TWh at its disposal.

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Eventually Germany wants green power to account for 80% of its energy mix by 2030. It has ditched nuclear power and aims to abandon most of its coal generation and use its remaining gas plants mostly for grid back-up.

That a rapid transition to renewable energy is possible is proven in Urugay which already gets over 90% of its electricity from renewables 29. It has almost completely phased out fossil fuels in electricity production. In the last decade, Uruguay installed 50 wind farms, decarbonized its energy grid and augmented its hydropower.

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China leads in renewables
As far as renewables are concerned, China is outclassing investments in rest of the world, by far surpassing investments in wind, solar energy, as well as in investments in battery gigafactories.

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The immense Gansu Wind Farm near the city of Jiuquan in the Gobi Desert consists of 7,000 wind turbines. Globally, China with more than 92,000 wind turbines leads the world in utilizing wind energy, with annual capacity of 650.56 TWh. The US, comes second with 379.77 TWh, and Germany third, with 115.79 TWh, respectively (one terawatt-hour equals 1,000 GWh and can fully power 70,000 homes for a year).

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Renewable energy from wind farms and large solar panel farms often needs to be transmitted across large distances, which requires expensive high-voltage transmission lines. The Ultra-High-Voltage (UHV) technology uses voltages of around 1000 kV. Some lines with this technology, spanning distances of 1000km, exist in Russia, China, and Japan, but they face various technical limitations and are not fully operational. Two lines, with transmission voltage of ±800 kV, transmission power up to 7.2 GW and length of up to 2000 km, have been operating in China since 2010. In Europe, some 20 lines are planned to transfer solar power from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states. However, they require massive investments and will take decades to build.

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As an example of Chinese ambitions in establishing a world hegemony in renewables serves erecting the world’s most powerful wind turbine, the Mingyang MySE 16-260, with a power rating of 16 MW. This giant offshore wind turbine, 152 meters high, with a rotor diameter of 260 meters, was installed in the Fujian offshore wind farm in the Taiwan Strait in 2023. It is said to have the capability to withstand extreme wind speeds to take advantage of a coastal wind tunnel effect. It has the potential to meet the energy needs of approximately 80,000 residents. If Chinese plans come to fruition, the Taiwan Strait wind farm, when completed, will be  world’s largest, able to power 13 million homes 30.

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The Chinese drive for dominance in production of renewables, as Paul Krugman suspects, may be facilitated by Western efforts to promote green technologies with an overall destabilizing effect on the world economy. 

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Altogether, around the world, renewables accounted for 28% of electric generation in 2021.  Within the renewables 55% of electricity came from hydro, while wind generated 23%, biomass 13%, solar 7% and geothermal 1%.
But the transition to renewables between countries remains highly uneven 31.

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According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2021 China produced 31% of global renewable electricity, followed by the United States (11%), Brazil (6.4%), Canada (5.4%) and India (3.9%).

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Despite all the investments China still lags the developed countries in renewables. With 30.18% of electricity derived from renewals in 2022 China was ahead of the US (22.35%) but remained behind Norway (98.95%), Canada (69.71%), and Germany (43.48%) 32.

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According to International Energy Agency, global investment in clean energy was to reach $1.7 trillion (U.S.) in 2023, with investment in solar energy technologies to surpass for the first time investment in oil production – a fact not to be overlooked. The investment in clean energy represents a 24% increase from just two years ago, compared with a 15% gain for fossil fuel investments 33.

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Approximately one-seventh of the world's primary energy is now sourced from renewable technologies 34.

In 2020 the world's total primary energy (the one found in nature, before conversion to other sources of energy) was still dominated by fossil fuels: oil (31.2%), coal (27.2%), and natural gas (24.7%). These three sources accounted for approximately 83.1% of the total primary energy used in 2020. Hydroelectricity accounted for 6.9%, nuclear energy for 4.3%, while other renewable sources accounted for 5.7%.

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Nuclear energy is a low-carbon source of energy that provides about 26% of the world's electricity. However, it accounts for only 4% of the world's primary energy consumption because nuclear power plants are designed to generate electricity and no other forms of energy. In contrast, other sources of energy such as coal, oil, and gas are used for a variety of purposes, including transportation, heating, and industrial processes 35.  The breakdown of energy sources is different in the electricity versus the energy mix. Generally, low-carbon sources (nuclear and renewables) account for a larger share of our electricity mix than in our total energy mix.

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According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nuclear power generated 10.4% of global electricity in 2019 which constituted about one-quarter of the world’s low-carbon electricity (26%). By the same token nuclear power is the world's second-largest source of low-carbon power, after hydro 16,6% – but ahead of solar, wind,  geothermal and other – 9.4%. In total  low-carbon power accounts for 36% of total production of electricity.  The leading countries in production of nuclear power are France, the USA, China, Russia, and Canada 36.  Although nuclear facilities do not emit greenhouse gases, their construction and maintenance still require large inputs of energy from fossil fuels used for production of steel, cement, and transportation. Therefore, they are designated as low-carbon power sources.

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These statistics show that phasing out of fossil fuels in producing electric power will require substituting 2/3 of electricity currently produced by non-polluting sources of energy, be it nuclear or renewables. On top of that, it would mean the need to deal with the pollution involved in construction of those facilities. In other words, the joint capacity of renewables and nuclear power would have to be tripled to phase out fossil fuels in producing electricity, and this before meeting the increased demand of electricity for powering EVs and industrial processes currently requiring fossil fuels – an overwhelming task by current standards.

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Direct Air Capture of carbon dioxide 
Despite all the efforts, CO2 levels in the atmosphere will likely continue to rise. The only remaining solution is the Direct Air Capture (DAC) to extract carbon dioxide from the air and bury it underground 37.

Great strides in developing Direct Air Capture technologies are being made. In September 2023, the first commercial direct air capture (DAC) facility, called Orca, began pulling carbon dioxide out of the air near Reykjavik, the capital of Island 38. 

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In November 2023, another commercial plant pulling carbon from the air,  Heirloom Carbon Technologies, was opened in California, near San Francisco 39.

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The hope is that these startups, once proved viable, will enable developing better technologies that could be scaled up, which in turn would bring their costs down, as it happened with the renewable energy sources that are now competitive with electricity derived from fossil fuel or nuclear-powered facilities. However, there is a marked difference in the applicability of renewable and direct air capture technologies. While wind and solar farms are now built for purely economic reasons, direct air capture technologies will not develop under strict market conditions and will require governmental intervention, both in terms of injecting capital and establishing regulatory standards for climate control.

 

Since DAC technologies are expensive and their benefits may only be realized in the decades to come, they are subject to conflicting political pressures from pro-environmental groups facing lobbies of powerful oil companies.

Orca, the Islandic startup, was promoted by Dr. Rasmussen, the former president, who not only saw a need for the DAC technology but also happened to come across people who had been working in that field as well as investors willing to risk their capital.

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The California startup was made feasible by an environmentally inclined state government as well as the large sums set aside for green technologies by the Biden administration. California had been setting standards for air pollution even under the Trump administration which had ostentatiously withdrawn from international environmental agreements.
 

Fossil fuels need to be phased out
Despite all the efforts to limit new emissions, the existing CO2 would have to be removed from the atmosphere at a rate of 5 billion metric tons annually. This would require not only building large amounts of DAC facilities but also providing them with substantial volumes of clean electricity needed to process the sequestered CO2. Few politicians are envisaging this perspective, let alone ready to act accordingly.

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Dire warnings at climate conferences have been issued for years now. In 2022, at the opening of the Cop27 UN climate summit in Egypt, Secretary General António Guterres told world leaders: “We are in the fight of our lives and we are losing … And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible...We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator” 40.

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The 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), held in December 2023 in Dubai, attended by over 97,000 delegates from all over the world, convened a new sense of urgency to replace fossil fuels with renewables in order to forestall catastrophic climate change. Delegates had to compromise with the hosting wealthy oil-producing Arab countries which also are the heaviest polluters, bent to further their own interests.

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In 2015 the Paris Agreement established a clear perspective to avoid environmental catastrophe. If global warming were to be limited to 1.5 degrees, net zero emissions of greenhouse gases had to be reached by 2050 41. This would mean an immense effort considering that current annual CO2 emissions worldwide are close to 40 billion metric tons annually and are still increasing since developing countries are trying to catch up with the Western standards of living. Instead, the Dubai conference proved that global emissions continue to rise by 1.5% a year, when they needed to be reduced by 7% annually to 2030 to ever reach the goal of limiting the warming of the planet to 1.5ºC. This constatation is a sobering reminder that the world community remains far off its targets.

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After drawn-out negotiations, the participants of COP28 agreed to accelerate action in this decade to achieve net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050.  Following the IEA’s recommendation, 117 countries agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 (to over 11,000 GW) and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements within this decade 42. 

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In the meantime, the year 2023 already has been found to be the hottest in human history and global warming is accelerating.

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These statistics show that phasing out of fossil fuels in producing electric power will require substituting 2/3 of electricity currently produced by non-polluting sources of energy, be it nuclear or renewables. On top of that, it would mean the need to deal with the pollution involved in the construction of those facilities. In other words, the joint capacity of renewables and nuclear power would have to be tripled to phase out fossil fuels in producing electricity, and this before meeting the increased demand for electricity for powering EVs and industrial processes currently requiring fossil fuels – an overwhelming task by current standards.

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Renewables in Canada

In that context, it is worthwhile noting that Canada finds itself among countries with advanced use of renewables and nuclear energy. While  68 percent of Canada’s electricity is generated by renewables, mainly by hydropower (61.5%), it is followed by nuclear energy at 15%, and coal at 7%. Natural gas generates 11% of electricity. The remaining 7% of power comes from other renewable sources: wind, biomass, and solar 43.

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Thanks to abundant natural resources, Canada was the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in 2020, accounting for 9% of global generation 44.

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In 2020 Canada produced 632.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity from all sources, including hydro, nuclear, wind, coal, biomass, solar, and petroleum (mostly diesel used to supply power in isolated northern communities). In 2022, 38.13 TWh were generated by wind power and  5,56 TWh by solar farms, which can be expanded as needed, while hydropower remains largely limited by suitable investments.

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However, Canada is also placed among countries with high fossil fuel usage, mainly for heating and transportation over its vast, sparsely populated regions.

As already mentioned, the demand for clean electricity will increase significantly due to the intended electrification of transportation. According to a 2020 study commissioned by Natural Resources Canada, electrical vehicles (EVs) will consume 156.5 terawatt-hours of electricity per year by 2050. This is equivalent to 22.6% of the electricity consumed in Canada in 2020 45.

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The government is encouraging Canadians to switch from gas to electric vehicles and from fossil fuel heating to electric heat pumps to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In 2022, Canadian Climate Institute found that to reach its net-zero goal Canada would need to double or triple its electrical grid capacity by 2050. It would also need more battery storage and enough flexibility in the system to adjust to peaks in demand from electric vehicles and home heating systems. To accommodate the extra load and to avoid power outages, or brownouts, the power grids would have to be upgraded at a significant cost 46.

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The federal government has also set a deadline of 2035 for achieving net-zero electricity generation. Also all new car sales would have to be zero-emission by that time.

If Canada is to meet these goals as much as 75 per cent of that additional power would need to come from wind and solar – an ambitious goal, considering  resistance from various influential lobbies.

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At the end of 2022, Canada had nearly 15 gigawatts (GW) of installed wind capacity and more than 4 GW of solar energy, for a total of 19 GW of installed renewable energy capacity 47.  Approximately 7% of its electricity demand was met by wind and solar energy in 2021 (wind 5.4%, solar 1.5%). Altogether 17% of Canada’s  total primary energy supply comes from renewable sources, which is above the average among OECD nations, yet it remains far away from securing the goal of zero emissions that needs to be attained in the coming decades 48.

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At present, Canada barely manages to stave off further emission increases. They remain below what they were before the pandemic set in, and even  8.4% below 2005 levels, yet in 2021 they rose significantly. By comparison to the previous year, they were up 4.9 percent in transportation,  4.1 percent in heavy industry, and 3.3 percent in the oil and gas sector. That meant that in 2022 alone Canada emitted to the atmosphere more than half a billion tons of CO2 (548 million metric tons of MtCO₂).  Reversing that trend would mean serious implications for policy, considering that the current government is committed to reducing emissions by 40 to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.

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Clean hydrogen as energy storage
New technologies offer a way to circumvent the problem of transmission of electrical power over large distances. Electricity can be used to produce clean hydrogen, which can be processed into ammonia and transported as fuel across the oceans. This is the path Canada is trying in Newfoundland that has plenty of resources necessary to manufacture clean hydrogen: wind power and water.

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Canada is already one of the largest producers of hydrogen that is in great demand as a substitute for fossil fuels. Hydrogen exports bring in about $6 billion per year. However, the currently produced hydrogen is derived from natural gas which is a fossil fuel and causes pollution. But “clean hydrogen” can be obtained from water via electrolysis - a pollution free process 49.  Under electrical current hydrogen in the water molecule (H2O) becomes separated from the oxygen atoms and is collected as a gas. In that form, it is still highly combustible but can be converted into liquid ammonia (NH3) that can be transported relatively safely and used as hydrogen storage.

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To power vehicles by hydrogen a fuel cell is required that converts the chemical energy back into electricity. However, in this process, around 60 per cent of energy is lost, so in the case of cars it is far more efficient to use lithium batteries instead. The most promising hydrogen applications could be in heavy duty vehicles, as trucks going on long distances, mining vehicles, trains, and even aircraft. In November 2023, Airbus made first ever flight powered by hydrogen combustion engine and the French aerospace company hopes to get hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft into service by 2035 50. Also, steel manufacturing, which is very energy-intensive, can benefit from hydrogen.

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The various applications of clean hydrogen gave impetus to a massive project conceived and propagated by WorldEnergyGH2 in Stephenville, Newfoundland 51. On the windy island’s Port au Port Peninsula World Energy GH2 plans erecting 164 wind turbines, some 200 meters high with an expected capacity of 1 GW that could power a 0.5 GW hydrogen and ammonia production facility in the port of Stephenville, the first of its kind in North America 52. 

 

A second wind farm of similar size is planned in the nearby the Codroy area. The project could create 1800 direct construction jobs, 3500 indirect jobs, and another 300 in operations, thereby boosting the economic prospects of the whole region. As the first step, the provincial government of Newfoundland and Labrador has approved World Energy GH2's crown land applications for the project. 

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Saudi Arabia, the top world oil producer, is also investing heavily in green hydrogen. The NEOM Green Hydrogen Complex, located in the Oxagon region, is expected to produce up to 600 tonnes per day of carbon-free hydrogen fuel in the form of green ammonia. When completed by the end of 2026, at a cost of $8.4bn, it is intended to be the world’s largest green hydrogen plant, utilizing solely wind and solar power 53.  

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As a result of recent technological developments multiple companies worldwide are currently betting on using hydrogen-based fuels for transport that could supplement clean energy needs in the coming decades.

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Conclusion
To mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for our planet all available resources will have to be employed in full: the population at large will have to be made aware of the impending ecological disaster; financial and physical resources will have to be mobilized to mitigate climate change; and the intellectual capital, perhaps the most important resource, will have to be supported to advance research and development of green technologies.  

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So where do we stand after the considerations presented in this essay? While electricity has become indispensable for modern ways of life, its continuous supply faces serious challenges. In the quest to replace fossil fuels while increasing the required energy supply, nuclear energy remains indispensable, yet it remains fraught with problems and certainly will be more expensive than presently assumed. Renewables, on the other hand, are becoming increasingly promising, but will not be cheap either. Yet one thing remains certain: fossil fuels need to be eliminated at any cost, because at the stake is – ni plus ni  moins – the survival of our planet.

All in all, to keep lights on in Toronto and other big cities on the continent, while keeping the environment livable, will not come cheap, and we better be prepared for it.

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GLOSSARY
A kilowatt (kW) measures the rate of energy consumption or production. It is equal to 1000 watts. One kilowatt is equivalent to 1.34 horsepower.
A kilowatt-hour (kWh) is the energy delivered by one kilowatt of power for one hour. Kilowatt-hours are a common billing unit for electrical energy supplied by electric utilities.  Average kWh usage for 2,000 sq. ft home is 43 kWh per day, 1,300 kWh per month.
One megawatt (MWe) is roughly enough electricity for the instantaneous demand of 750 homes.
A gigawatt (GW) is equal to 1000 megawatts (MW) and is roughly the size of two coal-fired power plants.
A gigawatt hour (GWh) is a measure of electricity generation of 1 GW produced over one hour.
A terawatt-hour (TWh) equals 1,000,000 megawatt-hours (MWh), or 1,000 GWh, and can fully power 70,000 homes for a year. 
 

Heavy water (deuterium oxide) is a form of water whose hydrogen atoms are all deuterium,  also known as heavy hydrogen. Deuterated water (HDO) occurs naturally in normal water and can be separated through distillation, electrolysis, or chemical exchange processes. The heavy water used in CANDU reactors is a highly enriched water mixture that contains mostly deuterium oxide D2O, some hydrogen-deuterium oxide and a smaller amount of ordinary hydrogen oxide H2O. 
 

Primary energy consumption includes all energy sources used to produce electricity, as well as energy used in other sectors such as transportation, industry, and residential. Nuclear power plants are designed to generate electricity and no other forms of energy. In contrast, other sources of energy such as coal, oil, and gas are used for a variety of purposes, including transportation, heating, and industrial processes.
 

Small nuclear reactors (SMRs)  are a class of small nuclear fission reactors, designed to be built in a factory, shipped to operational sites for installation and then used to power buildings or other commercial operations.
 

A microreactor is a small nuclear reactor that can operate independently from the electric grid, or as part of a microgrid to generate up to 20 megawatts of thermal energy that can be used to generate electricity and provide heat for industrial applications. Small enough to transport by truck, microreactors can help solve energy challenges in isolated areas, such as the Canadian North.

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REFERENCES

1. Bruce Power. brucepower.com

2. Needless to say that all work on nuclear fission was made possible by discoveries of radioactivity, by Marie and Pierre Curie, physicists working in primitive conditions in the early 1900s in Paris. It was also a cautionary tale of the deadly impact of radioactivity, as Marie Curie died of radiation induced aplastic anemia, at the age of 66. Cf. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Marie-Curie
3. Introduction to CANDU. Jul 2022. Bruce Power, Tiverton, On. Bruce Power L.P.
4. Ferguson, Rob. July 5, 2023. As electricity demand skyrockets, Ford government announces massive expansion to Bruce nuclear power plant. Ontario plans a massive expansion of the Bruce nuclear power plant on Lake Huron that will provide enough power for almost five million homes. Toronto Star.
5. McClearn, Matthew. July 15, 2023. On time and on budget: Darlington nuclear station is learning from past mistakes. Darlington station is more than halfway through a $12.8-billion overhaul to refurbish all four of its reactors by the end of 2026. Globe and Mail.
6. Delivering Transparency and Trust. Overview of the Bruce Power Contract. Bruce Power, 2023.

7. Idaho National Laboratory learned on November 8, 2023, that the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) and NuScale Power Corporation (NuScale) have mutually agreed to terminate the Carbon Free Project. Idaho National Laboratory Press Release.
8. Ontario Building More Small Modular Reactors to Power Province’s Growth. news.ontario.ca July 07, 2023. 
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10. Cameco and Brookfield Complete Acquisition of Westinghouse Electric Company. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, November 7, 2023. Camdeco.com
11. Rick Kazmer. December 25, 2023. Scientists developed portable nuclear reactor with amazing feature: transformative for our economy, industry, and communities.
And:  Dayne Patterson November 27, 2023.  Saskatchewan spending $80M in 1st step to bring a microreactor to the province. CBC News.
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22. Limb, Lottie. August 23, 2023. Norway: World’s biggest floating wind farm will power oil and gas platforms. Reuters.
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Also: O'Malley, Isabella, McDermott, Jennifer, St. John, Alexa. December 29, 2023. Europe, US, China: Where installed the most wind and solar power in 2023? Euroneews.green
25. Shahan, Zachary. December,29 2023.  Solar panel prices down 30–40% in 2023, US prices down 15%. Euronews.com
26. Shaw, Vincent, Thompson, Valerie. September 22, 2023. China to add 170 GW of PV in 2023, says S&P. S&P Global Commodity Insights. Chinese PV Industry Brief.
27. Djunisic, Sladjana. January 4, 2024. Spain records 50.4% renewables share for 2023. Daily Newsletter by Renewables Now!
28. Eckert, Vera, Alkousaa, Riham. January 3, 2024. Renewable energy's share on German power grids reaches 55% in 2023. Reuters.
Germany's Installed PV and Wind Power Capacity Increased by 17 GW in 2023.  January 6, 2024. Wind Energy and Electric Vehicle Magazine. evwind.es
29. Hanley, Steve. December 27, 2023. A rapid transition to renewable energy is possible. Uruguay proved it. cleantechnica.com
30. Elton, Charlotte. October25, 2022. China is building the world’s largest wind farm and it could power 13m homes. euronews.green 
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33. Niedens, Lyle. May 25, 2023. Solar energy investment to eclipse oil spending for the first time, IEA Says. investopedia.com
34. Primary energy sourced from renewable technologies is calculated  by the “substitution method” , as the amount of primary energy that would be required to produce the same amount of energy if it came from fossil fuels. Electricity forms only one component of energy consumption. OurWorldInData.org
35. Ritchie, Hannah, Rosado, Pablo.  Electricity Mix. Explore data on where our electricity comes from, and how this is changing. OurWorldInData.org
Nuclear Power in the World Today, November 2023.  world-nuclear.org
36. Nuclear Power in the World Today,  November 2023. world-nuclear.org
37. Mitloehner, Frank. September 20, 2019. What is carbon sequestration and how does it work? University of California, Davis, California.
38. Wilson, Peter. October 31, 2021. Is carbon capture here? A Swiss company is operating a device in Iceland that sucks CO2 from the air and shoots it into the ground, where it turns into rock. The New York Times.
39. Plumer, Brad. November 9, 2023.  In a U.S. first, a commercial plant starts pulling carbon from the air. The New York Times.
40. Harvey, Fiona, Carrington, Damian. November  7, 2022. World is on ‘highway to climate hell’, UN chief warns at Cop27 summit. António Guterres tells leaders ‘global climate fight will be won or lost in this crucial decade – on our watch’.  The Guardian.
41. Key aspects of the Paris Agreement. December 12. 2015.  UN Climate Change news. The agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
42. COP28: What did it accomplish and what’s next? December 14, 2023. World Economic Forum.  
43. Ritchie, Hannah, Roser, Max, Rosado, Pablo. January 2024. Our World in Data. Renewable Energy.
44. Canadian Renewable Energy Association  
45. Chung, Emily. August 15, 2023. Will electrifying cars and home heating break Canada's grid? CBC. 
46. Thurton, David. May 04, 2022 Canada's electricity grid will need substantial changes to help achieve net zero: report. CBC.
47. Canada ranked 8th in the world for installed wind energy capacity by the end of 2022 and  22nd for installed solar capacity in 2020.  Canadian Renewables Energy Association – By the Numbers – April 2023.
48. Renewable Energy in Canada: 33 Facts. April 04, 2023.  canadaaction.ca  
49. Goudie, Zach. September 1, 2022. How does a wind farm make hydrogen? CBC News.  
50. hydrogeninsight.com
51. Harnessing Newfoundland and Labrador’s Wind Energy. Project Nujio’qonik GH2.
52. Port au Port-Stephenville Wind Power and Hydrogen Generation Project. Project Nujio’qonik GH2.
53. Building the world’s largest green hydrogen plant. nghc.com
And: Saudi Arabia has an unlikely solar star. ACWA Power has green ambitions beyond its desert home. Jan 4th 2024. The Economist.

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